tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75570761624795721.post5666215027909641969..comments2023-05-02T04:02:36.316-04:00Comments on Berserk Father: 6 Ton NASA Satellite Falling From the SkyBerserk Dadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00754926948156498352noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75570761624795721.post-8213806820060628742011-09-21T11:08:12.309-04:002011-09-21T11:08:12.309-04:00Nevermind, I figured out why the values are so lar...Nevermind, I figured out why the values are so large. They are integrated across the worlds population. The risk for an individual is 1 in 3200 * (world's population, about 6.7 billion right now). Therefore, uncorrelated odds of 1 in 2.1E13 or 1 in 21 trillion. That seems much more reasonable.Berserk Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00754926948156498352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75570761624795721.post-16133627202534264852011-09-21T11:00:34.412-04:002011-09-21T11:00:34.412-04:00What I really don't understand about this is t...What I really don't understand about this is that the satellite hitting the Earth is a deterministic event - that is to say it will happen at a given time. A natural disaster is a pseudorandom event - we cannot predict when or where any of them will happen (given the appropriate amount of time away from the event (before a hurricane forms for instance)). How can those two events have such similar statistics?Berserk Dadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00754926948156498352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75570761624795721.post-31511899533862540602011-09-21T10:56:50.098-04:002011-09-21T10:56:50.098-04:00Considering that the odds of dying from natural fo...Considering that the odds of dying from natural forces (heat, storm, quake, etc) are 1 in 3357, I don't really consider the odds of not getting hit by that satellite to be all that good. Just sayin'Totally Mental Mommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17794316701367247547noreply@blogger.com